RESEARCH ARTICLE
More robust changes in the East Asian winter monsoon from 1.5 to 2.0°C global warming targets
Jiapeng Miao,
Tao Wang,
Dong Chen,
Jiapeng Miao
Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Tao Wang
Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China
Correspondence
Tao Wang, Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorDong Chen
Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Search for more papers by this authorJiapeng Miao,
Tao Wang,
Dong Chen,
Jiapeng Miao
Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Tao Wang
Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China
Correspondence
Tao Wang, Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorDong Chen
Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Search for more papers by this authorFunding information: the CAS-PKU Joint Research Program; the National Key R&D Program of China, Grant/Award Number: 2017YFA0603802; the National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grant/Award Numbers: 41575086, 41661144005
Abstract
This study investigates changes in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) under 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming (1.5 and 2.0GW) targets using multi-model results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). It is found that the surface air temperature increases over the Asian continent and Pacific, and the precipitation increases over the northern Asian continent in winter during the 1.5 and 2.0GW periods. For the 1.5GW period, large uncertainties can be found in the projection of EAWM system members (i.e., Siberian high, Aleutian low, low-level winds over eastern Asia, East Asian trough [EAT] and East Asian jet stream [EAJS]). For the 2.0GW period, more than two-thirds of the models show that the Siberian high, the EAT and the meridional shear of the EAJS are weakened, but the Aleutian low is intensified. In addition, the intensified Aleutian low enhances low-level northwesterly wind along the coast of northeastern Asia. Compared to those in the 1.5GW period, the EAWM system members show more robust changes during the 2.0GW period, except for the low-level winds at mid-latitude eastern Asia. These conclusions are suitable for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Supporting Information
| Filename | Description |
|---|---|
| joc6485-sup-0001-Supinfo.docxWord 2007 document , 2.9 MB | Appendix S1: Supporting information |
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
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