Tropical cyclone precipitation regimes since 1750 and the Great Suppression of 1843–1876 along coastal North Carolina, USA

Abstract

Latewood ring widths of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) are effective recorders of annual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation (TCP), accounting for approximately half of the explained variance. Based on a regional chronology comprised of data from five sites in coastal North Carolina, we reconstructed TCP during 1750–2015 to examine temporal variability of multidecadal dry and wet TCP regimes, the synoptic controls that contributed to an exceptionally dry phase in 1843–1876, and the effectiveness of using latewood to identify droughts independent of TCP. We found six phases of alternating dry/wet phases occurred during the 250+ years in the reconstruction (duration range = 17–62 years) and the 1843–1876 period of exceptionally narrow latewood widths and low TCP values (i.e., the Great Suppression) was unique during the past quarter millennium. The Great Suppression coincided with a period of anomalously low pressure (relative mean hPa deviation = −60 DAM) over the eastern USA at 500 hPa heights, which strongly affects the steering of TCs. We found that while each dry phase was characterized by a persistence of these steering lows, including the most recent (2006–2016) period absent of major landfalling TCs in the United States, the Great Suppression was unmatched in intensity. Finally, we determined that variability in longleaf pine latewood widths do not reflect overall soil-moisture conditions, as neither narrow nor wide latewood widths are coincident with variations in non-TC-related precipitation. Rather, latewood growth flushes are associated with ephemeral periods of elevated water tables following high-intensity TC-related rainfall events.