Atmospheric precursors for intense summer rainfall over the United Kingdom
Corresponding Author
Richard P. Allan
National Centre for Earth Observation, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Correspondence
Richard P. Allan, Department of Meteorology, Whiteknights, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorStephen Blenkinsop
School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle, United Kingdom
Search for more papers by this authorHayley J. Fowler
School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle, United Kingdom
Search for more papers by this authorAdrian J. Champion
College of Engineering, Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Richard P. Allan
National Centre for Earth Observation, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Correspondence
Richard P. Allan, Department of Meteorology, Whiteknights, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorStephen Blenkinsop
School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle, United Kingdom
Search for more papers by this authorHayley J. Fowler
School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle, United Kingdom
Search for more papers by this authorAdrian J. Champion
College of Engineering, Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Search for more papers by this authorFunding information: H2020 Environment, Grant/Award Number: 690462; Natural Environment Research Council, Grant/Award Number: NE/K00896X/1; Wolfson Foundation and the Royal Society, Grant/Award Number: WM140025
Abstract
Intense sub-daily summer rainfall is linked to flooding impacts in the United Kingdom. Characterizing the atmospheric conditions prior to the rainfall event can improve understanding of the large-scale mechanisms involved. The most intense sub-daily rainfall intensity data generated from rain gauge records across the United Kingdom over the period 1979–2014 are combined with fields from the ERA Interim reanalysis to characterize atmospheric conditions prior to heavy rainfall events. The 200 most intense 3-hourly events for six UK regions are associated with negative anomalies in sea level pressure (<−2 hPa) and 200 hPa geopotential height (<−60 m) to the west or south west of the United Kingdom 1 day earlier, with above average moisture, evaporation and dew point temperature over North West Europe. Atmospheric precursors are more intense but less coherent between regions for composites formed of the 25 heaviest rainfall events but all display substantial moisture transport from the south or south east prior to their occurrence. Composites for the heaviest events are characterized by a tripole geopotential anomaly pattern across the North Atlantic. Above average geopotential height and dew point temperature over Newfoundland and below average geopotential height but elevated evaporation in the North Atlantic are found to be weakly associated with an increased chance of the most intense sub-daily rainfall events 5–9 days later.
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