Volume 38, Issue 7 p. 3090-3105
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Extreme dry spells over the Mediterranean Basin during the wet season: Assessment of HyMeX/Med-CORDEX regional climate simulations (1979–2009)

Florian Raymond

Corresponding Author

Florian Raymond

Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Biogéosciences, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France

Correspondence

Florian Raymond, Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Biogéosciences, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France.

Email: [email protected]

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Philippe Drobinski

Philippe Drobinski

LMD/IPSL, École Polytechnique, Université Paris Saclay, ENS, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, CNRS, Palaiseau, France

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Albin Ullmann

Albin Ullmann

Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Biogéosciences, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France

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Pierre Camberlin

Pierre Camberlin

Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Biogéosciences, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France

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First published: 15 March 2018
Citations: 14

Abstract

Exceptional dry spells, in this study referred to as very long dry spells (VLDS), are natural hazards to which the Mediterranean region is extremely vulnerable, with socio-economic and environmental impacts. In this study, they are characterized in terms of location, spatial extent, duration, temporal variability and associated atmospheric circulations. The main objective is to assess the performance of five HyMeX/Med-CORDEX regional climate simulations to detect and reproduce VLDS in comparison with the E-OBS observed daily gridded data. Models accurately reproduce the occurrence of precipitation around the Mediterranean Basin, and therefore the occurrence of VLDS, with at least 51% of the E-OBS VLDS reproduced by the regional simulations. They also accurately simulate the spatio-temporal characteristics. A second objective is to identify the synoptic atmospheric patterns associated with VLDS. A clustering analysis shows that all models accurately reproduce the main VLDS spatial patterns, associated with anticyclonic conditions above the affected regions. The simulated VLDS occurrence is strongly related to the amplitude of the sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies as well as the location of the maximum anomalies. All VLDS events are associated with anticyclonic conditions except those occurring in the eastern Mediterranean, where they are generally not associated with a specific meteorological event but with the usual summer weather regime.