Extreme dry spells over the Mediterranean Basin during the wet season: Assessment of HyMeX/Med-CORDEX regional climate simulations (1979–2009)
Corresponding Author
Florian Raymond
Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Biogéosciences, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France
Correspondence
Florian Raymond, Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Biogéosciences, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorPhilippe Drobinski
LMD/IPSL, École Polytechnique, Université Paris Saclay, ENS, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, CNRS, Palaiseau, France
Search for more papers by this authorAlbin Ullmann
Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Biogéosciences, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France
Search for more papers by this authorPierre Camberlin
Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Biogéosciences, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Florian Raymond
Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Biogéosciences, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France
Correspondence
Florian Raymond, Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Biogéosciences, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorPhilippe Drobinski
LMD/IPSL, École Polytechnique, Université Paris Saclay, ENS, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, CNRS, Palaiseau, France
Search for more papers by this authorAlbin Ullmann
Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Biogéosciences, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France
Search for more papers by this authorPierre Camberlin
Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Biogéosciences, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
Exceptional dry spells, in this study referred to as very long dry spells (VLDS), are natural hazards to which the Mediterranean region is extremely vulnerable, with socio-economic and environmental impacts. In this study, they are characterized in terms of location, spatial extent, duration, temporal variability and associated atmospheric circulations. The main objective is to assess the performance of five HyMeX/Med-CORDEX regional climate simulations to detect and reproduce VLDS in comparison with the E-OBS observed daily gridded data. Models accurately reproduce the occurrence of precipitation around the Mediterranean Basin, and therefore the occurrence of VLDS, with at least 51% of the E-OBS VLDS reproduced by the regional simulations. They also accurately simulate the spatio-temporal characteristics. A second objective is to identify the synoptic atmospheric patterns associated with VLDS. A clustering analysis shows that all models accurately reproduce the main VLDS spatial patterns, associated with anticyclonic conditions above the affected regions. The simulated VLDS occurrence is strongly related to the amplitude of the sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies as well as the location of the maximum anomalies. All VLDS events are associated with anticyclonic conditions except those occurring in the eastern Mediterranean, where they are generally not associated with a specific meteorological event but with the usual summer weather regime.
REFERENCES
- Anagnostopoulou, C., Maheras, P., Karacostas, T. and Vafiadis, M. (2003) Spatial and temporal analysis of dry spells in Greece. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 74, 77–91.
- Bauweraerts, I., Wertin, T.M., Ameye, M., McGuire, M.A., Teskey, R.O. and Steppe, K. (2013) The effect of heat waves, elevated [CO2] and low soil water availability on northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) seedlings. Global Change Biology, 19, 517–528.
- Beuvier, J., Sevault, F., Herrmann, M., Kontoyiannis, H., Ludwig, W., Rixen, M., Stanev, E., Béranger, K. and Somot, S. (2010) Modeling the Mediterranean Sea interannual variability during 1961–2000: focus on the eastern Mediterranean transient. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 115(C8), C08017.
10.1029/2009JC005950 Google Scholar
- Plan Bleu. (2014) EAU: Gestion de la demande, Approche économique de la gestion de la demande en eau en Méditerranée, Instruments économiques (ACTeon, cahier 15, 82 pp.). Valbonne: Plan Bleu.
- Born, K., Fink, A.H. and Paeth, H. (2008) Dry and wet periods in the northwestern Maghreb for present day and future climate conditions. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 17, 533–551.
- Brunet, M., Gilabert, A. and Jones, P.D. (2014) A historical surface climate dataset from station observations in Mediterranean North Africa and Middle East areas. Geoscience Data Journal, 1, 121–128.
- Brunetti, M., Maugeri, M., Nanni, T. and Navarra, A. (2002) Droughts and extreme events in regional daily Italian precipitation series. International Journal of Climatology, 22, 509–621.
- Chen, M., Shi, W., Xie, P., Silva, V.B.S., Kousky, V.E., Wayne, H.R. and Janowiak, J.E. (2008) Assessing objective techniques for gauge-based analyses of global daily precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D04110.
- Colin, J., Déqué, M., Radu, R. and Somot, S. (2010) Sensitivity study of heavy precipitation in limited area model climate simulations: influence of the size of the domain and the use of the spectral nudging technique. Tellus A, 62, 591–604.
- Croitoru, A.E., Chiotoroiu, B.C. and Torica, V. (2012) Dry spells on the Romanian Black coast. In: Air & Water Components of the Environment Conference, Cluj, Romania, March 23–24, 2012.
- Déqué, M., Jones, R.G., Wild, M., Giorgi, F., Christensen, J.H., Hassell, D.C., Vidale, P.L., Rockel, B., Jacob, D., Kjellstrom, E., de Castro, M., Kucharski, F. and van den Hurk, B. (2005) Global high resolution versus limited area model scenarios over Europe: results from the PRUDENCE project. Climate Dynamics, 25, 653–670.
- Domínguez, M., Romera, R., Sánchez, E., Fita, L., Fernández, J., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Montávez, J.P., Cabos, W.D., Liguori, G. and Gaertner, M.A. (2013) Present-climate precipitation and temperature extremes over Spain from a set of high resolution RCMs. Climate Research, 58, 149–164.
- Drobinski, P., Alonzo, B., Bastin, S., Da Silva, N. and Muller, C.J. (2016) Scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the French Mediterranean region: what explains the hook shape? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, 3100–3119.
- Drobinski, P., Ducrocq, V., Alpert, P., Anagnostou, E., Béranger, K., Borga, M., Braud, I., Chanzy, A., Davolio, S., Delrieu, G., Estournel, C., Filali Boubrahmi, N., Font, J., Grubisic, V., Gualdi, S., Homar, V., Ivancan-Picek, B., Kottmeier, C., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Lionello, P., Llasat, M.C., Ludwig, W., Lutoff, C., Mariotti, A., Richard, E., Romero, R., Rotunno, R., Roussot, O., Ruin, I., Somot, S., Taupier-Letage, I., Tintore, J., Uijlenhoet, R. and Wernli, H. (2014) HyMeX, a 10-year multidisciplinary program on the Mediterranean water cycle. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95, 1063–1082.
- Dubrovsky, M., Hayes, M., Duce, P., Trnka, M., Svoboda, M. and Zara, P. (2014) Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region. Regional Environmental Change, 14, 1907–1919.
- Fantini, A., Raffaele, F., Torma, C., Bacer, M., Coppola, E., Giorgi, F., Ahrens, B., Dubois, C., Sanchez, E. and Verdecchia, M. (2016) Assessment of multiple daily precipitation statistics in ERA-Interim driven Med-CORDEX and Euro-CORDEX experiments against high resolution observations. Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3453-4.
10.1007/s00382-016-3453-4 Google Scholar
- Ferranti, L. and Viterbo, P. (2006) The European summer of 2003: sensitivity to soil water initial conditions. Journal of Climate, 19, 3659–3680.
- Flaounas, E., Drobinski, P., Borga, M., Calvet, J.C., Delrieu, G., Morin, E., Tartari, G. and Toffolon, R. (2012) Assessment of gridded observations used for climate model validation in the Mediterranean region: the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX framework. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 024017.
- Flaounas, E., Drobinski, P., Vrac, M., Bastin, S., Lebeaupin-Brossier, C., Stéfanon, M., Borga, M. and Calvet, J.C. (2013) Precipitation and temperature space–time variability and extremes in the Mediterranean region: evaluation of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. Climate Dynamics, 40, 2687–2705.
- Food and Agriculture Organization. (2011) The state of the world's land and water resources for food agriculture (SOLAW): Managing systems at risk. London: Rome and Earthscan. 308 pp.
- Gao, X., Pal, J.S. and Giorgi, F. (2006) Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean region from high resolution double nested RCM simulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L03706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024954.
- Gibelin, A.L. and Déqué, M. (2003) Anthropogenic climate change over the Mediterranean region simulated by a global variable resolution model. Climate Dynamics, 20, 327–339.
- Giorgi, F. and Bi, X. (2005) Updated regional precipitation and temperature changes for the 21st century from ensembles of recent AOGCM simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L21715. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024288.
- Giorgi, F., Coppola, E., Solmon, F., Mariotti, L., Sylla, M.B., Bi, X., Elguindi, N., Diro, G.T., Nair, V., Giuliani, G., Turuncoglu, U.U., Cozzini, S., Güttler, I., O'Brien, T.A., Tawfik, A.B., Shalaby, A., Zakey, A.S., Steiner, A.L., Stordal, F., Sloan, L.C. and Brankovic, C. (2012) RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains. Climate Research, 52, 7–29.
- Giorgi, F., Jones, C. and Asrar, G. (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. WMO Bulletin, 58(3), 175.
- Giorgi, F. and Lionello, P. (2008) Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Global and Planetary Change, 63, 90–104.
- Gong, X. and Richman, M.B. (1995) On the application of cluster analysis to growing season prcipitation data in the North America east of the rockies. Journal of Climate, 8, 897–931.
- Haylock, M.R., Hofstra, N., Klein Tank, A.M.G., Klok, E.J., Jones, P.D. and New, M. (2008) A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D20119.
- Hernandez-Mora, N., Cortina, L.M., Madurga, R.L. and Gimena, E.C. (2007) Groundwater in the Southern Member States of the European Union: an assessment of current knowledge and future prospects (Country Report for Spain, 39 pp.). Brussels: European Academies Science Advisory Council.
- Herrera, S., Fita, L., Fernández, J. and Gutiérrez, J.M. (2010) Evaluation of the mean and extreme precipitation regimes from the ENSEMBLES regional climate multimodel simulation over Spain. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D21117.
- Herrera, S., Gutiérrez, J.M., Ancell, R., Pons, M.R., Frías, M.D. and Fernandez, J. (2012) Development and analysis of a 50-year high-resolution daily gridded precipitation dataset over Spain (Spain02). International Journal of Climatology, 32, 74–85.
- Herrmann, M., Somot, S., Calmanti, S., Dubois, C. and Sevault, F. (2011) Representation of spatial and temporal variability of daily wind speed and of intense wind events over the Mediterranean sea using dynamical downscaling: impact of the regional climate model configuration. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11, 1983–2001.
- Hertig, E. and Tramblay, Y. (2017) Regional downscaling of Mediterranean droughts under past and future climatic conditions. Global and Planetary Change, 151, 36–48.
- Hofstra, N., Haylock, M., New, M. and Jones, P. (2009) Testing E-OBS European high-resolution gridded data set of daily precipitation and surface temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D21101.
- Hofstra, N., New, M. and McSweeney, C. (2010) The influence of interpolation and station network density on the distributions and trends of climate variables in gridded daily data. Climate Dynamics, 35, 841–858.
- Hourdin, F., Musat, I., Bony, S., Braconnot, P., Codron, F., Dufresne, J.L., Fairhead, L., Filiberti, M.A., Friedlingstein, P. and Grandpeix, J.Y. (2006) The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection. Climate Dynamics, 27, 787–813.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) In: T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (Eds.) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. 1535 pp.
- Jacobsen, S.E., Jensen, C.R. and Liu, F. (2012) Improving crop production in the arid Mediterranean climate. Field Crops Research, 128, 34–47.
- Karabork, M.C. (2007) Trend in drought patterns of Turkey. Journal of Environmental Engineering and Science, 6, 45–52.
- Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G. and Ullerstig, A. (2011) 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Tellus A, 63, 24–40.
- Klok, E.J. and Klein Tank, A.M.G. (2009) Updated and extended European dataset of daily climate observations. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 1182–1191.
- Koleva, E. and Alexandrov, V. (2008) Drought in the Bulgarian low regions during the 20th century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 92, 113–120.
- Komuscu, A.U. (2001) An analysis of recent drought conditions in Turkey in relation to circulation patterns. Drought Network News, 13, 5–6.
- Kostopoulou, E. and Jones, P.D. (2005) Assessment of climate extremes in the eastern Mediterranean. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 89, 69–85.
- Kumar, S., Merwade, V., Kinter, J.L., III and Niyogi, D. (2013) Evaluation of temperature and precipitation trends and long-term persistence in CMIP5 twentieth-century climate simulations. Journal of Climate, 26, 4168–4185.
- Kyselý, J. and Plavcová, E. (2010) A critical remark on the applicability of E-OBS European gridded temperature data set for validating control climate simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D23118.
- Lana, X., Martinez, M.D., Burgueno, A., Serra, C., Martin-Vide, J. and Gomez, L. (2006) Distribution of long dry spells in the Iberian Peninsula, years 1951–1990. International Journal of Climatology, 26, 1999–2021.
- Lelieveld, J., Hadjinicolaou, P., Kostopoulou, E., Chenoweth, J., El Maayar, M., Giannakopoulos, C., Hannides, C., Lange, M.A., Tanarhte, M., Tyrlis, E. and Xoplaki, E. (2012) Climate change and impacts in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Climatic Change, 114, 667–687.
- López-Franca, N., Sánchez, E., Losada, T., Domínguez, M., Romera, R. and Gaertner, M.A. (2015) Markovian characteristics of dry spells over the Iberian Peninsula under present and future conditions using ESCENA ensemble of regional climate models. Climate Dynamics, 45, 661–677.
- Lorenz, P. and Jacob, D. (2010) Validation of temperature trends in the ENSEMBLES regional climate model runs driven by ERA40. Climate Research, 44, 167–177.
- Mehran, A., AghaKouchak, A. and Phillips, T.J. (2014) Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to satellite-based gauge-adjusted observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119, 1695–1707.
- Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G. and Ullerstig, A. (2011) Evaluation and future projections of temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe in an ensemble of regional climate simulations. Tellus A, 63, 41–55.
- Oikonomou, C., Flocas, H.A., Hatzaki, M., Nisantzi, A. and Asimakopoulos, D.N. (2010) Relationship of extreme dry spells in eastern Mediterranean with large-scale circulation. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 100, 137–151.
- Paxian, A., Hertig, E., Seubert, S., Vogt, G., Jacobeit, J. and Paeth, H. (2015) Present-day and future Mediterranean precipitation extremes assessed by different statistical approaches. Climate Dynamics, 44, 845–860.
- Rajczak, J. and Schär, C. (2017) Projections of future precipitation extremes over Europe: a multimodel assessment of climate simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122, 10773–10800.
- Raymond, F., Ullmann, A. and Camberlin, P. (2016a) Précipitations intenses sur le Bassin Méditerranéen: quelles tendances entre 1950 et 2013? Cybergéo: European Journal of Geography, 107, 625–634. https://doi.org/10.4000/cybergeo.27410.
- Raymond, F., Ullmann, A., Camberlin, P., Drobinski, P. and Chateau Smith, C. (2016b) Extreme dry spell detection and climatology over the Mediterranean Basin during the wet season. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 7196–7204.
- Raymond, F., Ullmann, A., Camberlin, P., Oueslati, B. and Drobinski, P. (2017) Atmospheric conditions and weather regimes associated with extreme winter dry spells over the Mediterranean Basin. Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3884-6.
- Rockel, B., Will, A. and Hense, A. (2008) The regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 17, 347–348.
- Ruti, P., Somot, S., Giorgi, F., Dubois, C., Flaounas, E., Obermann, A., Dell'Aquila, A., Pisacane, G., Harzallah, A., Lombardi, E., Ahrens, B., Akhtar, N., Alias, A., Arsouze, T., Raznar, R., Bastin, S., Bartholy, J., Béranger, K., Beuvier, J., Bouffies-Cloche, S., Brauch, J., Cabos, W., Calmanti, S., Calvet, J.C., Carillo, A., Conte, D., Coppola, E., Djurdjevic, V., Drobinski, P., Elizalde, A., Gaertner, M., Galan, P., Gallardo, C., Gualdi, S., Goncalves, M., Jorba, O., Jorda, G., Lheveder, B., Lebeaupin-Brossier, C., Li, L., Liguori, G., Lionello, P., Macias-Moy, D., Onol, B., Rajkovic, B., Ramage, K., Sevault, F., Sannino, G., Struglia, M.V., Sanna, A., Torma, C. and Vervatis, V. (2015) MED-CORDEX initiative for Mediterranean climate studies. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97, 1187–1208.
- Saaroni, H., Ziv, B., Lempert, J., Gazit, Y. and Morin, E. (2015) Prolonged dry spells in the Levant region: climatologic-synoptic analysis. International Journal of Climatology, 35, 2223–2236.
- Samuelsson, P., Jones, C., Willén, U., Ullerstig, A., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U., Jansson, C., Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G. and Wyser, K. (2011) The Rossby centre regional climate model RCA3: model description and performance. Tellus A, 63, 4–23.
- Sanchez, E., Domínguez, M., Romera, R., Lopez de la Franca, N., Gaertner, M.A., Gallardo, C. and Castro, M. (2011) Regional modeling of dry spells over the Iberian Peninsula for present climate and climate change conditions. Climatic Change, 107, 625–634.
- Siebert, S., Burke, J., Faures, J.M., Frenken, K., Hoogeveen, J., Döll, P. and Portmann, F.T. (2010) Groundwater use for irrigation—A global inventory. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 1863–1880.
- Sillmann, J., Kharin, V.V., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F.W. and Bronaugh, D. (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118, 1716–1733.
- Somot, S., Sevault, F., Déqué, M. and Crépon, M. (2008) 21st century climate change scenario for the Mediterranean using a coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate model. Global and Planetary Change, 63, 112–126.
- Stefanon, M., D'Andrea, F. and Drobinski, P. (2012a) Heatwave classification over Europe and the Mediterranean region. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 14–23.
- Stefanon, M., Drobinski, P., D'Andrea, F., Lebeaupin-Brossier, C. and Bastin, S. (2014a) Soil moisture–temperature feedbacks at meso-scale during summer heat waves over western Europe. Climate Dynamics, 42, 1309–1324.
- Stefanon, M., Drobinski, P., D'Andrea, F. and Noblet-Ducoudré, N. (2012b) Effects of interactive vegetation phenology on the 2003 summer heat waves. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D24103.
- Stefanon, M., Schindler, S., Drobinski, P., De Noblet-Ducoudré, N. and D'Andrea F. (2014b) Simulating the effect of anthropogenic vegetation land cover on heatwave tempratures over central France. Climate Research, 60, 133–146.
- Terrado, M., Acuña, V., Ennaanay, D., Tallis, H. and Sabater, S. (2014) Impact of climate extremes on hydrological ecosystem services in a heavily humanized Mediterranean Basin. Ecological Indicators, 37, 199–209.
- Torma, C., Coppola, E., Giorgi, F., Bartholy, J. and Pongrcz, R. (2011) Validation of a high-resolution version of the regional climate model RegCM3 over the Carpathian basin. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12, 84–100.
- Törnros, T. (2010) Precipitation trends and suitable drought index in the arid/semi-arid southeastern Mediterranean region. IAHS Publication, 340, 157–163.
- Tramblay Y., El Adlouni S., Servat E. (2013). Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghhreb countries. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13, pp. 3235–3248.
- Tramblay, Y. and Hertig, E. (2018) Modelling extreme dry spells in the Mediterranean region in connection with atmospheric circulation. Atmospheric Research, 202, 40–48.
- Ulbrich, U., May, W., Lionello, P., Pinto, J.G. and Somot, S. (2006) The Mediterranean climate change under global warming. In: P. Lionello, P. Malanotte and R. Boscolo (Eds.) Mediterranean Climate Variability. Amsterdam: Elsevier B.V. , pp. 399–415.
- Vaittinada Ayar, P., Vrac, M., Bastin, S., Carreau, J., Déqué, M. and Gallardo, C. (2016) Intercomparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling models under the EUROS- and MED-CORDEX initiative framework: present climate evaluations. Climate Dynamics, 46, 1301–1329.
- Vicente-Serrano, S.M. (2006) Differences in spatial patterns of drought on different time scales: an analysis of the Iberian Peninsula. Water Resources Management, 20, 37–60.
- Vidal, J.P., Martin, E., Franchisteguy, L., Habets, F., Soubeyrous, J.M., Blanchard, M. and Baillon, M. (2010) Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 459–478.
- Wang, D., Heckathorn, S.A., Barua, D., Joshi, P., Hamilton, E.W. and Lacroix, J.J. (2008) Effects of elevated CO2 on the tolerance of photosynthesis to acute heat stress in C3, C4 and CAM species. American Journal of Botany, 92, 165–176.
- Xoplaki, E., Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F., Luterbacher, J. and Wanner, H. (2004) Wet season Mediterranean precipitation variability: influence of large-scale dynamics and trends. Climate Dynamics, 23, 63–78.
- Zampieri, M., D'Andrea, F., Vautard, D., Ciais, P., De Noblet-Ducoudreé, N. and Yiou P. (2009) Hot European summers and the role of soil moisture in the propagation of Mediterranean drought. Journal of Climate, 22, 4747–4758.
- Zappa, G., Hawcroft, M.K., Shaffrey, L., Black, E. and Brayshaw, D.J. (2015) Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics, 45, 1727–1738.
- Zouhal, L.M. and Donoeux, T. (1997) An evidence-theoretic k-NN rule with parameter optimization. In: Proceedings of the 2nd International ICSC Symposium on Fuzzy Logic and Applications. Zurich: ICSC, pp. 294–300.