Research Article

Understanding the spatio‐temporal influence of climate variability on Australian heatwaves

Tammas F. Loughran

Corresponding Author

E-mail address:t.loughran@unsw.edu.au

Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales AustraliaSydney, Australia

Correspondence to: T. F. Loughran, Climate Change Research Centre, Gate 11 Botany St, Library Walk, Level 4, Mathews Building, University of New South Wales Australia, Sydney, NSW, Australia, 2052. E‐mail: E-mail address:t.loughran@unsw.edu.au
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Sarah E. Perkins‐Kirkpatrick

Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales AustraliaSydney, Australia

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Lisa V. Alexander

Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales AustraliaSydney, Australia

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First published: 26 December 2016
Cited by: 4

ABSTRACT

Some of the major drivers of extreme temperatures in Australia are related to large‐scale variations in the climate. While many of the relationships between climate variability and heatwaves have been described, the preceding climate conditions and the circulation patterns responsible for interannual heatwave variations are still poorly understood. We have used rotated principal component analysis (PCA) to describe the variance of frequency, duration, magnitude and timing of Australian summer heatwaves. This provides a simple means of investigating both the spatial patterns of circulation and the preceding climate mode conditions of summer heatwaves. We find that spatial patterns of heatwave variability associated with El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were focused in the north and northeast of Australia for heatwave occurrence. Patterns of heatwave amplitude in southeastern Australia were also weakly related to ENSO. The PCA did not find any direct, concurrent Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) or Southern Annular Mode (SAM) signal. However, lead correlations indicate that winter IOD conditions can have a weak indirect effect on heatwave occurrence in northeast Australia and similarly, winter SAM conditions can affect heatwave timing in central eastern Australia. Regressions reveal that ENSO related heatwave duration and frequency in the northeast are related to the movement of the Walker circulation, while southeastern heatwave amplitude is associated with a north–south movement of the Tasman high pressure system. These results may lead to improvements in understanding the predictability and general preparedness for heatwaves in the summer season.

Number of times cited: 4

  • , Recent changes in heat waves and cold waves detected based on excess heat factor and excess cold factor in Romania, International Journal of Climatology, 38, 4, (1777-1793), (2017).
  • , No significant difference between Australian heat wave impacts of Modoki and eastern Pacific El Niño, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 10, (5150-5157), (2017).
  • , The Role of Circulation and Land Surface Conditions in Current and Future Australian Heat Waves, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0265.1, 30, 24, (9933-9948), (2017).
  • , Comparing Australian heat waves in the CMIP5 models through cluster analysis, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122, 6, (3266-3281), (2017).